The Economist Gets It Wrong

The Economist issues its diagnosis of what's wrong with America's governing system and declares it is because Obama hasn't given enough ground to the Republicans.

It is not so much that America is ungovernable, as that Mr Obama has done a lousy job of winning over Republicans and independents to the causes he favours. If, instead of handing over health care to his party’s left wing, he had lived up to his promise to be a bipartisan president and courted conservatives by offering, say, reform of the tort system, he might have got health care through; by giving ground on nuclear power, he may now stand a chance of getting a climate bill.

Wrong!  Obama did offer to negotiate over tort reform and was rebuffed by the Republicans.  And what of the three months was given over to Finance Chair Sen. Max Baucus to come up with a bipartisan healthcare reform bill?  The strategy of the Republicans, which Sen. Grassley, minority leader of the committee, explicitly gave away, was to slow the process down and hope that lighten would strike and kill the bill.  Sure enough, lighten struck in Massachusetts, but didn't quite kill it.

But for the Economist to totally absolve the Republicans for any responsibility for the gridlock in Washington is laughable.  They are tacitly portrayed as this poor, ignored collection of principled conservatives.  When, in fact, they are a wrecking crew, bent on the destruction of the Obama presidency.

As Obama has learned, it is very hard to find common ground with people whose fondest wish is your utter failure.

Bye, Bye Bayh

Robert Borosage nails Sen. Evan Bayh for his sanctimonious exit:

The harsh reality is that Bayh has been wrong about virtually everything. And the country suffers not because partisanship blocked action, but because the establishment consensus got too much of his agenda enacted.

Bayh supported the catastrophic invasion of Iraq. He joined the bipartisan celebration of banking deregulation. He favors more military spending. He favored tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans in an age of Gilded Age inequality. He was an advocate of corporate free trade policies that encouraged multinationals to ship jobs to a mercantilist China willing to subsidize them. He's a champion of bipartisanship -- bipartisan folly.

Even in his departing, he got it wrong. Bayh announced on CBS's Early Show that he was looking for a job in the private sector because "If I could create one job in the private sector by helping to grow a business, that would be one more than Congress has created in the last six months," This echoes the Republican assault on the recovery plan as summarized by newly elected Senate Scott Brown of Massachusetts, that the stimulus plan "didn't create one new job."

These moderates are so damned frustrating.  They build their identity around the fact that the best policy lies somewhere between what Democrats want and what Republicans want.  If all sides were operating good faith, this might work some of the time.  But when what one party wants is for the other party to fail, the concept breaks down.  Then, all the moderates do is facilitate a nihilistic approach to government by creating gridlock.

So, here we are the Republicans, who handed Obama two unfinished wars and an economy heading into another depression, have had some success painting Democrats as either incompetent failures who can't get anything done or successful socialists who are taking the country into the dictatorship of the proletariat.  And the result, if achieve their goal, will be to hand the government back to them to do it all again.

Grrrr!

Avatar

I saw the movie Avatar and liked it a lot.  Of course, it is visually dazzling.  Despite the hype, it lives up to expectations in the 3D viewing.  You very quickly forget you're watch 3D and just become immersed in the movie or, more specifically, in the planet Pandora.

I haven't read a lot of reviews of Avatar, but, just through scanning, I have some familiarity with various issues and controversies surrounding the film.  So, I'll just touch upon my view on a couple of them.

The plot, while very satisfying, is also very familiar.  If you go to the effort, you can pretty much figure out everything that's going to happen in the movie after the first few minutes.  My advice is, don't go to the effort.  It's more fun.  Let your "willing suspension of disbelief" take over.

The religious overtones of the movie are interesting.  I've heard some Christians have criticized the movie as a paean to pantheism, which, in their minds, is barely one step up from atheism.  I disagree. Pantheism is the believe that everything is God and God is impersonal and inscrutable.  In this movie, the deity, while inscrutable, does actually seems to intervene in nature when asked to do so by the Na'Vi, much like Christians believe their God does.  If anything, contrary to the Hollywood stereotype, I thought the movie showed a great respect for religion.

One aspect of the movie, however, confirms the Hollywood stereotype of the "self-hating American."  The movie clearly depicts American-type characters as the bad guys.  It's no mystery why this movie is so popular in China. People wait for hours there to get in to see it. It can really be seen as an allegory on Western imperialism.  The top military bad guy is a caricature of the ugly American.  And the civilian businessman is even worse, since he clearly knows what they are doing is wrong and is too timid to stop it.  Of course, even Director James Cameron succumbs to American movie stereotypes, since the hero is also a white American male who saves the seemingly powerless natives.  And, while the religion does not contradict Christianity, in my view, it does seem more Eastern than Western, which would also appeal to Chinese sensibilities.

So, the plot, while predictable, is deep enough to generate controversy and discussion. That's good.  But it's not about the plot.  It's about the visuals, which are stunning.  You can truly understand why this movie took ten years to make.  While I didn't even know it was in the making until it came out, it was worth the wait.

Sid Ceasar Does Beethoven

The Huffington Post has a great feature, the 29 funniest music videos of all time.  Many are familiar, like Steve Martin's King Tut, Andy Kaufman's Might Mouse and Monty Python's Bright Side of Life.  But my favorite combines my love of Beethoven with that of black and white TV (broadcast TV at its best).  It's probably from the 1950's and has Sid Ceasar conducting an marital argument to the First Movement of Beethoven's Fifth Symphony.  It is hysterical.  You really have to watch the whole 5 minute clip to appreciate it.  It's done so well that it looks like Beethoven had this in mind when he wrote the piece.  Check it out.

A Star is Born

I hope this Rahm Emmanuel spoof becomes a regular feature on SNL.  This guy is good!

Ted Koppel at 70

Today is Ted Koppel's Birthday.  He turns 70 years old and I'm sure he's going strong. 

I met Ted Koppel briefly some years ago.  We were both on a small plane going into Marco Island, I think.  I was attending the meeting of my client, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS).  Ted looked like he was heading for vacation.  As we walked across the tarmac to the terminal, I used the opportunity to test a proposition.  As PR consultant to STS, I had been telling them that a big problem they had was that nobody knew what they did.  In fact, nobody knew what the word "thoracic" meant.  As a result, despite their life-saving activities at the very top of the medical profession, they had little public support when they complained that payment for their services was actually declining, just when we would be needing them most.  For the record, "thoracic" means chest area.  They are heart and lung surgeons.

So, I thought, "I wonder if a very smart and influential guy like Ted Koppel knows what a thoracic surgeon does?"  So, this exchange took place:

"Mr. Koppel, hi, I'm Bill Black.  I'm a consultant for the thoracic surgeons.  Do you mind if I ask you a question?"

"No, go ahead."

"Can you tell me what a thoracic surgeon does?"

"Sure.  Operates on the throat."

"Sorry, no.  They are heart surgeons and you've given me a great anecdote."

"Fine," Koppel says with a disgusted wave of his hand, "There's your anecdote."  And he marched off, clearly pissed.

My Kind of Weatherman

He LOVES this!

Sublime

There are few things in life more transcendentally beautiful than the morning after a big snowstorm. And there is nothing in life that brings such beauty to your doorstep.

I experience this beauty this morning at about 7 am with vigorous trudge three blocks to Rock Creek Park. The sites and sounds were exquisite. While there was the muffling effect of snow and a low wind, there were also, surprisingly, bird calls. What hardy creatures to have made it through a night of blizzard conditions.

The snow was above my knees, which made trudging laborious. In some spots it reached my upper thigh. One neighbor was out shoveling to "get ahead of the storm." He explained that he had shoveled the night before and all his work was blown away. Of course, there's supposed to be another blast this afternoon, which will likely blown his morning's work away, as well.

I'm such a snow junky that my expectations are rarely satisfied by the actual storm. This one did it. And it ain't over yet.

Bliss.

A Beautiful Reminiscence

A very sweet column in the Washington Post by Rachel Machaud remembering snowstorms past.  It truly resonated with me.  I have deep, but vague, memories of confronting the snow with my father.  Unlike Rachel's Dad, my father didn't get paid for his work.  He was the one everyone called to get their stuck car moving, to put on the chains, etc., etc.  But it was friends and family.  And I was his sidekick.  Of course, I hated it at the time.  But I do have fond memories of being up before dawn with him on snowy mornings when school was canceled.   Here's Ms. Machaud's memory:

It is still dark when my father shakes me, cold seeming to radiate from his outside clothes. He touches my shoulder, not wanting to wake my sister in the twin bed.

"I'm awake. I'm awake," I say.

He leaves, and I go to the bathroom, where I put on layers of clothes, nothing good that will get dirty or torn. I walk downstairs and head out to his truck.

While my specifics are different, the mood is very familiar.  It honestly brings a tear to my eye as I think about, and miss, my father.  Another such memory is evoked by a poem by Robert Hayden called, Those Winter Sundays.  Here's an excerpt:

Sundays too my father got up early
And put his clothes on in the blueblack cold,
Then with cracked hands that ached
From labor in the weekday weather made
Banked fires blaze.  No one ever thanked him.

My father died at age 52 when I was 17 years old.  He remains with me in spirit. Maybe it's these kinds of memories that make me love the snow.

Bring it on!

This is why I love Andrew Sullivan

He finds stuff like this.

New Favorite Blog

I've only recently discovered The Capitol Weather Gang, a Washington Post weather blog.  Finally, weather reports that don't bemoan the terrible weather we're about to get.  Or that celebrate the fact that "we dodged the bullet." 

I want the bullet!  Bring it on!  I love big snowstorms and so, apparently, do the people behind the Capitol Weather Gang.  With a mega storm coming, I'm checking it almost as much as I check Talking Points Memo.

Reality Check

I truly love this post by Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo.  I get very frustrated with all the "experts" who know what the Democrats should or shouldn't do to improve their political situation.  They all seem to have this view that the Democrats on the Hill, both House and Senate, are a bunch of dummies.  Having worked there, I know that there are very smart, well-motivated people running the Congress.  And those of us on the outside can't possibly know the problems they confront, both in terms of policy and politics.  Yes, it is clear that Republicans are more ruthless and more cynical in how they conduct themselves.  I'm fine with us being less ruthless and less cynical.  Josh is truly an adult who keeps things in perspective when he writes:

But I don't think anybody with half a brain (and maybe that excludes more people than it should) doesn't realize that the Democrats problems are overwhelmingly tied to the fact that we're in the midst of the worst recession since the end of the Second World War. Whether it's 75% of the problem or 80% or 90% I sort of go back and forth on in my mind. But clearly this is overwhelmingly the issue.

That said, for the life of me, I can understand why they haven't passed the Senate bill with the reconciliation fix on healthcare.

Religion as a Means, not an End

I am a fan of C.S. Lewis, particularly his Christian apologetics. I find him to be the most intellectually satisfying defender of Christianity that I have read. He is brilliant, creative and honest. And he gives due deference to contrary arguments from skeptics. One of his most creative works is The Screwtape Letters, a book in which the "narrator" is a senior level demon, working for Satan, who is advising a "nephew," an up and coming demon, on how to lead a particular human away from God and toward the dark side. So, he cleverly describes various modes of thinking and behaving that tend to lead humans astray and explains how his nephew can encourage those behaviors.

I've been re-reading Screwtape and was struck by the following quote, which I think effectively describes the Christian Right in America in the last 30 years. They use their religion as a political weapon to achieve temporal ends. Bear in mind, Lewis is writing this during World War II and Screwtape is explaining how to push a mode of thought that leads to evil. If C.S. Lewis has it right, these "Christianists" are in for a surprise on judgment day. (emphasis added)

Let him begin by treating the Patriotism or the Pacifism as a part of his religion. Then let him, under the influence of partisan spirit, come to regard it as the most important part. Then quietly and gradually nurse him on to the stage at which the religion becomes merely part of the "cause", in which Christianity is valued chiefly because of the excellent arguments it can produce in favour of the British war-effort or of Pacifism. The attitude which you want to guard against is that in which temporal affairs are treated primarily as material for obedience. Once you have made the World an end, and faith a means, you have almost won your man, and it makes very little difference what kind of worldly end he is pursuing. Provided that meetings, pamphlets, policies, movements, causes, and crusades, matter more to him than prayers and sacraments and charity, he is ours—and the more "religious" (on those terms) the more securely

Frank Rich

In today's NY Times, Frank Rich addresses this new prohibition, discussed below, against "blaming Bush" for the problems the country faces currently.  During Obama's State of the Union, John McCain can be seen chuckling and mouthing the words, "blaming Bush."

Rich writes:

Perhaps McCain was sneering at Obama because of the Beltway’s newest unquestioned cliché: one year after a new president takes office he is required to stop blaming his predecessor for the calamities left behind. Who dreamed up that canard — Alito? F.D.R. never followed it. In an October 1936 speech, nearly four years after Hoover, Roosevelt was still railing against the “hear-nothing, see-nothing, do-nothing government” he had inherited. He reminded unemployed and destitute radio listeners that there had been “nine crazy years at the ticker” and “nine mad years of mirage” followed by three long years of bread lines and despair. F.D.R. soon won re-election in the greatest landslide the country had seen.

Obama in the Lion's Den

I came to Washington with a freshman congressman named Barney Frank. In his fourth month in Congress, he offered an amendment on the floor of the House that would have had the effect of reducing price supports for dairy farmers. His purpose was to build a record of fiscal responsibility in order to answer the question "Where are you going to get the money to pay for the increases you want in social programs." At the time, the federal government was buying billions of pounds of dairy products due to over-production caused by high support prices. The case for Barney's amendment was self-evident.

Nevertheless, farm state congressman were enraged by the amendment. They lined up by the dozens to take him on in debate on the floor. Many were very patronizing, suggesting this new guy from an urban area couldn't possibly understand the complexities of agricultural economics.

He schooled them. He stood alone on the floor, took them on one by one, and demolished every argument. He clearly won the debate. It was, to coin a phrase, a slam dunk.

Of course, his amendment went down to defeat by about 70-360. It was an early lesson for me that being right, doesn't mean you win.

I have never, before or since, seen such a display of intellectual courage...until yesterday. I thought Obama's performance before the House Republican Conference was a tour de force. I thought he was tough, but not angry. Extremely knowledgeable, but not arrogant. And he had a few flashes of humor. The man is fearless.

He seems to be conducting an ongoing seminar testing the proposition that the American body politic can operate on an adult level. He refuses to succumb to soundbite politics that have typified most policy debate over the past 20 years. And he calls it out when others so engage.

David Axelrod has already suggested future encounters with the Republicans like this. Stay tuned. Frankly, I will be surprised if the Republicans agree. But, if they do, he will have real progress in changing the way things are done in Washington.

Meanwhile, in a further example of his wit and authenticity, he did a little color commentary on today's Georgetown/Duke basketball game. I still love this man. Check it out.

George Who??

Obama's First State of the Union delivered. It helped stabilize my faith and confidence, which, as per the previous post, was getting wobbly. I appreciated his feistiness. On the two raps from the left, I agree with one and disagree with the other. I agree that he still seems to be holding back on healthcare. I'm hoping that he knows the fix is in for passage of the Senate bill, with tweaks in reconciliation. And his invitation to Republicans into the process was rhetorical, since I am convinced that they have not and will not bargain in good faith. If anything, the Massachusetts result will only increase their determination to block everything.

I reject the critique from the left on the so-called budget freeze. Frankly, I agree with the Republicans that it's too modest to have any economic effect as fiscal policy. But it should have some modest symbolic effect. It is the most controllable part of the budget, so it is appropriate to try to limit overall spending in that category as a first step in reigning in the deficit. As long as it isn't a line by line freeze, it seems like a good, and frankly necessary, step. It's really not a freeze, it's a cap. But I guess freeze polls better.

My favorite moment was the following:

At the beginning of the last decade, the year 2000, America had a budget surplus of over $200 billion. By the time I took office, we had a one-year deficit of over $1 trillion and projected deficits of $8 trillion over the next decade. Most of this was the result of not paying for two wars, two tax cuts, and an expensive prescription drug program. On top of that, the effects of the recession put a $3 trillion hole in our budget. All this was before I walked in the door.

Now the Republicans and their sympathizers in the media have howled over this. "He's got to stop blaming Bush!" "It was a campaign speech!" Sen. John Kyl (R-AZ) called it "whining" on NPR this morning.

Baloney! We need more of this.

The Republican game is clear. At its most simplistic, they are trying to avoid taking responsibility for mess we're in. But their plan is even more insidious and sometimes seems to be working. Some in the media seem to be buying their scam. Here's how it goes:

Step 1

Make it inappropriate for Democrats or the President to assign any responsibility for the country's problems to Bush or the Republicans. Call it partisan, or whining or unbecoming of the president. Get the conventional wisdom spouters in Washington to flag this and tut tut every time some Democrat mentions Bush. Thereby, they separate Bush and the Republicans from economic mess they created.

Step 2

Hang every problem we have on Obama. Blame the situation on his policies, both those he has enacted, like the Recovery Program, and those they've succeeding in blocking, like healthcare (so far), climate change, banking regulation, etc. Make the Obama agenda into a status quo that has failed. This, despite the fact that every respectable economist has confirmed that the "stimulus plan" actually worked. If anything, it was too small. State that, after a year in office, the fact that Obama has only ended the recession and not brought about full employment is proof that his policies are an utter failure.

Step 3

Propose the same policies that created the economic collapse, tax cuts for business and the wealthy and deregulation of every sector of the economy. Since these proposals are different from the "failed Obama program" and accountability for Bush and the Republicans have been banished from the debate, they are presented as something new. Republicans then become the party of change.

Viola, black is white, up is down. And the Republicans are back in charge accelerating our decline as a country.

Obama at One Year

Count me as a Koolaid drinking supporter of Barack Obama. Whatever I believe about his position on any given issue - and I disagree on some, I fundamentally trust him. I trust his motives, I trust his intelligence and I trust his judgment...I think. Yes, even I am getting a bit wobbly right now. Like everyone else, I was stunned by the slow motion train wreck in Massachusetts. And I'm deeply disappointed with how much it seems to have rattled the Democrats in Congress. If the Republicans were in the same position, they would have rammed the Senate bill through the House by now, if only to make the point that the voters in one state can not scare them. Why the hesitation among the Democrats? They've already voted for the bill in one form or another. How do they think they will diminish their political risk by refusing to vote for essentially the same bill again and at least get credit for the accomplishment? I just don't get it.

Which brings me back to Obama. Why doesn't he just demand the House pass the Senate bill and fix it in the reconciliation process? Since I still trust his motives, intelligence and judgment, I can only assume he knows what he's doing and will bring this to a good place. But my faith is weakening.


It helped me to read an evaluation of Obama by Chris Patten in the European Voice. He's the former governor general of Hong Kong before it was handed back to the Chinese and is an enlightened political observer. Yes, he's European, so his opinion is disregarded as socialist and elitist by red-blooded Americans. But I've always respected his insights. Here's what he said about Obama:

Pragmatic and highly intelligent, sooner or later every issue receives the full attention of his forensic curiosity. Recalling Hillary Clinton's famous Democratic primary television advertisement, Obama, it turns out, is exactly the sort of president that most of us would want to have in the post for that 3am phone call about an international crisis. He would not be afraid to act, but he would be prepared to think first.

And that's what I admire most about Obama. He thinks things through and doesn't claim to have a divinely inspired gut, like his predecessor. Like Patten, I feel like he's been pushed around a bit in his first year in office, by Benjamin Netanyahu, by the Chinese, by the Republicans in Congress. But my hope is that, like John Kennedy being pushed around by the generals on the Bay of Pigs and Khrushchev in Vienna, the experience will toughen him up for when he confronts his own version of the Cuban Missle Crisis (let's hope with somewhat lesser stakes).

Which leads to Patten's larger point in his piece. He identifies to the greatest crisis facing humanity right now and it's not global warming. Rather it's nuclear proliferation.

The nuclear issue is one of the biggest items on the Obama agenda. How it is handled will help to define his presidency....These are going to be some of the major questions for Obama over the next year and more. If he gets them right, he can forget about his short-term critics. Fortunately, he is smart enough to know this.

Coincidentally, there was an NPR story this morning about a new documentary on nuclear proliferation in which Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, William Perry and Sam Nunn, cold warriors all, advance their own grave warnings about this threat. Look for that issue to take center stage in the months ahead. It will be interesting to see how that one gets politicized in the efforts by his opponents to "break" Obama.

In the meantime, we toil in the weeds of domestic legislation. I do believe Obama's got to chalk up some wins on the smaller issues, like healthcare and the economy, in order to give him the political heft to deal with the fate of humanity, a challenge with which Republicans seemed blithely indifferent.

We are at a familiar place. Obama under siege with a big speech coming up. He's nailed it every time before. I'll be watching his State of the Union tonight with my "hope" only slightly diminished.

On a Lighter Note

An elderly couple walked into the lobby of the Mayo Clinic for a checkup and spotted a piano . They've been married for 62 years and he'll be 90 this year .

Check out this impromptu performance. Gives me hope.

The Frying Pan or the Fire

Since the Massachusetts election debacle, we have come to an interesting place on the healthcare debate. There are two schools of thought on the situation:

1) The Democrats moved too far to the left and lost the independents. Therefore, they need to dramatically scale back their ambitions on healthcare reform. Either cave to whatever the Republicans want, or pass some modest tweaks.

2) The Democrats moved to far to the center, trying to accommodate centrists or even Republicans, constantly compromising to the point that the base of the party became disillusioned. So, the solution is for the House Democrats to suck it up, pass the Senate bill and work on tweaks through the reconciliation process that only requires 51 Senate votes in order to enact legislation.

Politically, I can't really say which analysis is correct. Interestingly, adherents of both schools of thought claim that following the other will result in an election catastrophe in the Fall, if followed. In that respect, they both could be right. Who knows. That's a long way off. Stuff happens. No one would have predicted Sen. Scott Brown, even as near as a month ago.

Politics notwithstanding, only option 2 will result in significant policy change. The House has already passed a healthcare reform bill, one that is even more liberal than the Senate. Republicans are going to try to hang that around Democrats' necks no matter what happens next. There is no increased political risk to voting for final passage and, having actually accomplished something, there could be less.

They have to pass the Senate bill.

A Memorable Dinner

I had a fascinating dinner with some colleagues two nights ago. I blogged about it on my other professional blog, World of Public Affairs, but thought readers of this blog might also be interested.

If so, click here.

Random Thoughts

I've spent the last two days on official work on Tokyo and it's been a bit exhausting. Dinner almost immediately after arriving at the hotel. It was a gathering of leaders from my firm from around Asia and it represented another reminder of how fortunately I am to be in the business I'm in, communications, and to be working for the firm I do. It was and is a truly remarkable group of people.

Our President of China was honored for his recent engagement to be married. In his remarks, after being introduced as a poet, he reminisced about his friendship with beat poet, Allan Ginsburg. Apparently, Ginsburg struck up a friendship with him during a visit in which my colleague was his translator in a visit to China. Ginsburg made some controversial comments and was extremely impressed when his translator accurately translated them. This was at a time when doing so came at some political risk for my colleague. He was and continues to be a very principled man and we are lucky to have him in the firm.

For dinner, we had something called Shabu Shabu. They set a pot of water on a hot plate in front of you. Then they bring a bowl of vegatables, which are dumped into the boiling water. Then comes thin sliced beef, which you are instructed to swish in the boiling vegetable broth only long enough to say the words "shabu, shabu." So, it's barely cooked, but delicious.

Yesterday, we had an all day session discussing business in the Asia region. Our program began with a professor who does a lot of TV commentary who was very critical of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). He said they had no agenda, just wanted to be loved by the people. The only thing that protects their political situation is the fact that the recently ousted Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are even more "stupid" than the incumbents.

I got back to the hotel at about 7 pm. Had room service dinner and went to bed. Up at 3:45 am.

Revolutionize the Senate

James Fallows has a great piece in the Atlantic Monthy that ruminates over the supposed historic decline of the U.S. as a world power.  Most of the article is a rebuttal of that proposition.  His arguments are relatively persuasive and it does give hope for the future.

But he does have one huge caveat.  His view presupposes that the steps that must be taken to preserve America's position in the world.  However, to the extent any of those steps require government action, his view is sobering.  His correctly focuses his attention on that most undemocratic dysfunctional institution, the United States Senate.  Because we now have a new de facto requirement that it requires 60 votes to accomplish anything...literally anything, the bias against action is nearly insurmountable.   And this is a new thing.  As Fallows points out:

When the U.S. Senate was created, the most populous state, Virginia, had 10 times as many people as the least populous, Delaware. Giving them the same two votes in the Senate was part of the intricate compromise over regional, economic, and slave-state/free-state interests that went into the Constitution. Now the most populous state, California, has 69 times as many people as the least populous, Wyoming, yet they have the same two votes in the Senate. A similarly inflexible business organization would still have a major Whale Oil Division; a military unit would be mainly fusiliers and cavalry. No one would propose such a system in a constitution written today, but without a revolution, it’s unchangeable. Similarly, since it takes 60 votes in the Senate to break a filibuster on controversial legislation, 41 votes is in effect a blocking minority. States that together hold about 12 percent of the U.S. population can provide that many Senate votes. This converts the Senate from the “saucer” George Washington called it, in which scalding ideas from the more temperamental House might “cool,” into a deep freeze and a dead weight.

Of course, as a Democrat, it is enormously frustrating that that "blocking minority" is composed mostly of Republican senators, who disproportionately represent those low-population states who have undemocratic representation in the Senate.  It's a double whammy.  The Senate starts off undemocratic due to the apportionment of senators.  Then you add the 60 vote rule and you've got the Politburo.  Very sad.

An Honorable Conservative

Add Judge Richard Posner to the very gradually growing list of intellectually honest conservatives who are will to acknowledge that the actual events of the last year discredited their economic theory.  Alan Greenspan has admitted that he placed to much trust in the free market to rein in financial misbehavior.  Now, Posner, an extremely prolific writer who's considered one of the smartest conservative economic thinkers in the country, has come around, as well.

In the current New Yorker, he is quoted thusly:

We are learning from it [the economic collapse] that we need a more active and intelligent government to keep our model of a capitalist economy from running off the rails.

This is huge.  As noted but the New Yorker writer, John Cassidy,

As acts of betrayals go, this was roughly akin to Johnny Damon's shaving off his beard, forsaking the Red Sox Nation and joining the Yankees.

Now, thanks an analogy I get.

People like Posner prove how utterly out of touch the current Republican leadership is, both party and congressional.  They think they claw their way back into power by bamboozling the public that our current travails are all the fault of Barack Obama, shameless trying to shout there way past the fact that it's their failure and corruption that put us in the mess we're in.

John Stewart at His Best

His account of the "underwear bomber" is one his best ever, in my opinion:

Even If The Bomb Works, There's Gonna Be 72 Very Disappointed Virgins

Check it out.  Watch the whole thing.  Hilarious.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
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My Favorite Twilight Zone Episode

I would be remiss if I didn't comment on my all-time favorite Twilight Zone episode, Five Characters in Search of an Exit.  It depicts five people with easily identifiable roles, a soldier, a ballerina, a clown, etc., who find themselves in a plain white cylinder that is open at the top.  They don't know how they got there, have no memory from before they got there and don't know what the cylinder is.  Periodically, the deafening sound of bells ringing rattles the cylinder.

The soldier motivates them all to try to escape through the top and they try various means.  Finally, one goes over the top and the rest remain puzzled as to where he went.  The scene then shifts and the ending is both amusing and deeply depressing.

I've read some reviews online that trashed the show.  I don't think they get it.  For me, this show is an allegory of the human condition.  How did we get here?  Why are we here?  And what happens when we go "over the top?"  Fundamentally, we have no greater understanding of these deep questions than the characters in that cylinder.  Maybe I was in my most deep existential angst stage at the time, but that show haunted me for years.  Still does.

Twilight Zone Marathon

The ScyFy channel runs an annual Twilight Zone Marathon every year during New Year's and I love it. They run back to back episodes around the clock. It allows me to check back in on some of my favorites and discover new episodes. And it reminds me what a genius Rod Serling was. I am also struck by the provocative themes he explores in the show. A recurring theme is Nazis and the Holocaust. I just watched a very vivid episode , entitled Death's Head Revisited, that follows a former Nazi's camp guard who revisits Dachau and encounters the ghost of one of the inmates he tortured and killed. While the images in the show are subdued and depict the actual camp and the posts where prisoners were hung, the script is brutal, with some pretty explicit descriptions of what went on in the camp. In the end, the former guard is forced to endure, in his mind, the full range of suffering he inflicted on others. It was powerful.

But there was another episode, entitled He's Alive, that was amazing in the degree to which it remains relevant today. It starred a very young Dennis Hopper playing a pathetic neo-Nazi whose rantings are ignored until he receives advice from a mysterious, shadowy figure. The show was an hour long, which suggests it was a special episode when it first aired in 1963. The Hopper character gives fiery speeches that, in large part, would not be out of place in one of today's Tea Party rallies. It's all about "patriotism" and the degree to which "others" are threatening our freedoms. Very, very timely.

What is clear is that Serling had an acute sense of the fact that all human beings have in them the capacity for evil. And we all need to be very aware of that fact and not pretend that "we" are good, but "they" are evil. We clearly need his voice today. It's sad that he died so young of lung cancer. Of course, he's got that ever present smoking cigarette during his intro to each episode, which is a kind of unintentional horror story all its own.

Republican Hypocrisy

I generally take the position that most people consider themselves good and well-motivated.  When people do or say things with which I disagree, I try to understand what they are saying to themselves to justify their misguided ways.  Often, I will conclude that they are either deluding themselves or they believe some higher cause is achieved by maybe shading the truth or ignoring evidence that may contradict their view or action.

So, I mostly attribute Republican lies and deceit with willful ignorance or an "ends justifies the means" approach to politics.  And their end to to obtain power.

But the Republican response to the Detroit underwear bomber blows my theory.  In this instance, they are just evil.  Their relentless attacks on Obama are now completely divorced from any credibility and are shameless, hypocritical efforts to destroy our President without any regard to what it does to our country.  When Democrats criticized Bush, they were said to be unpatriotic.  Republicans, like Dick Cheney, now show no qualms about aggressively politicizing every move Obama makes.  It is truly sickening.

Think Progress has a good account of Cheney's latest outrage.  As does Eugene Robinson in today's Washington Post. 

Sadly, the American public doesn't punish this kind of behavior.  It think the only think that we save our country in the next few years is for the voters to smack the Republicans for the third time in a row.  Right now, they feel politically vindicated because they have succeeded tainting the healthcare reform legislation by making the process of its enactment as ugly as possible.  Eventually, the bill will pass and we will move on to the slow process of implementation.  It is unclear what it's short term political impact will be.  They key in November will be the economy.  If the economy improves and Obama's policies are vindicated, they are dead meat.  And we might see a new Republican party that believes it has some responsibility to govern.  If unemployment remains high and they make political gains, the trench warfare will continue to the detriment of the country.  Our steady decline will continue.

God help us.

Iran and New Media

Here's a quote from an expert on developments in Iran that says it all for me:

Current chatter of an imminent national strike being planned – an enormous development if it proves to be true – is just one example of how such a structure allows the opposition movement to organize through a decentralized communication network rather than a rigid hierarchy.

Iran on the Brink?

This morning on CNN Robin Wright, the great journalist on the Middle East, speculated on whether events in Iran represented a "Berlin Wall" moment.  While she wasn't sure, she said it could be.  What a monumental prospect.  I find events in Iran exhilarating.  I'm not deluded into thinking the outcome might turn Iran into a western secular  democracy.  What it does represent to me is the extend to which justice can prevail, that oppression can be resisted, that,  ultimately, the people can rule.  I am also hopeful that part of the reason the people of Iran can resist is because information can no longer be permanently suppressed.  In an earlier era, the resisters would not have been able to coordinate the way they have, nor could  they inform the rest of the world what was happening there.  For instance, few would have known that the nephew of Mousavi was killed by the regime.  That event appears to have thrown gasoline on a raging fire. 

Thanks to Andrew Sullivan, I've come across a great web site with a very sophisticated analysis of events in Iran, called "the newest deal."  Here's a sample:

So when word of yesterday’s bloodshed reaches the country’s religious centers – and it surely will in the midst of the chaos that has erupted during the last forty-eight hours – outrage can be expected in Qom. This may soon put Iran’s clerics, both conservative and moderate, in an unenviable position: sacrificing their coveted theocracy in order to salvage their religion’s sanctity. For if it was unclear up until this point, there is surely no way that any clerical scholar of Islam can any longer defend the actions of the Islamic Republic – especially when such actions are committed in Islam’s name, for that matter.

What is happening in Iran seems truly historic. Yet, American media seems strangely oblivious. While they appear late to this realization, at least CNN is devoting the appropriate attention. Meanwhile, on the Today Show, the news at the top of the hour devoted maybe 10 seconds to Iran.

Krugman on the Team

Paul Krugman is making it his business to prove to the left that the healthcare reform bill will be a major progressive win.  In his blog, he displays a very impressive graph from the Kaiser Family Foundation that shows how much the average family will be subsidized, based on family income.



But, best of all is this opening paragraph:

A couple of notes to address complaints about the Senate bill from the left and the center. (There’s no use addressing complaints from the right; in general, the safest thing when dealing with crazy people is to avoid eye contact.) Emphasis added.

Celebrating Healthcare Reform

I have to admit, my admiration for Paul Krugman varies proportional to his support for President Obama.  Since he supported Hillary during the primaries, he's not particularly invested in Obama as an individual.  So, generally, when he's critical, he comes at Obama from the Left and I get conflicted.  But, when he lines up with Obama, all is right with the world.

Today, he comes out in strong support of the Senate healthcare reform bill.  Yes, it is a compromise, but a compromise that represents and massive change in direction in American politics.  Of course, he does take a gentle shot at Obama by pointing out that the bill is closer to Hillary Clinton campaign proposal than to Obama's.  But his conclusion is strong:

And for all its flaws and limitations, it’s a great achievement. It will provide real, concrete help to tens of millions of Americans and greater security to everyone. And it establishes the principle — even if it falls somewhat short in practice — that all Americans are entitled to essential health care.

While I am pretty far to the Left ideologically, I am also a pragmatist when it comes to policymaking.  As I've noted in a previous post, the bill will be seen as one of the great legislative achievements of the past fifty years.  I'm glad Krugman agrees with me.

Christmas 2009

There's an interesting Christmas tradeoff as you move through life. When Santa rules the day (i.e. the kids are young), the stress is high leading up to the big day. Are there enough gifts? Have we visited enough Santa's? Have all the rituals, I mean traditions, been served? By the time Christmas arrives, you're exhausted....and then you have to get up at 5 am to start opening presents. But the delight the kinds exhibit is precious and almost makes it all worthwhile.

When your kids are 19 and 15, the stress is much lower. There's no "magic" to be preserved, although there are traditions. It remains a special time of year, but in a more authentic way.

And you get to sleep in.

Our day has been relaxed and very pleasant. We attended midnight Mass at St. Anselm's Abbey, stayed briefly for cookies and to wish the monks a Merry Christmas. We didn't get to bed until 2 am and I was up at 7. The kids got up at 11. We opened gifts and everyone came away happy. Now, we're just gliding through the day.

Notwithstanding all the pleasantness, it is a very different Christmas, the first without my mother and without Rita's Aunt Gen. We won't feel the full brunt of their absence until with get up to Boston tomorrow. My mother and Gen were true lovers of Christmas and there will be a big empty place in this holiday season.

Also, this is the first Christmas in which we won't be staying in the attic room in Rita's mother's house in Brookline. Year after year, I would chafe at the confined quarters and wish we could stay in a hotel. Admittedly less so in recent years as Rita and I have learned to accommodate each other's needs during this annual pilgrimage. But I have to say, I will miss the old house and will chafe at new inconveniences at the Dedham Hilton.

So, all in all, a nice, but somewhat bittersweet, holiday.

Healthcare Reform

Lots of commentary on healthcare reform today. Suffice it to say that opinion is mixed on Obama's accomplishment in this area. Looking back, I predict this legislation will be considered a stunning achievement. Yes, it is much less that most liberals want. It's less than Obama wants. But it is what it is. And what it is is the most significant piece of social welfare legislation since Medicare.

Obama suffers from the size of his original ambition. As we begin to focus on what's in this bill, you realize that, two years ago, anyone who would have predicted legislation of this kind be enacted into law would have been considered delusional. The Patient Bill of Rights, 30 million more people covered by health insurance, free preventive care, thousands of new community health center, etc., etc. While the left criticizes Obama as to timid, as his change incremental, he's changing America.

For a more articulate account of Obama's brilliant first year, check out Jacob Weisberg's piece in Slate Magazine. It declares Obama's first year on par with FDR and LBJ. I think he's right.

Baucus Calls Out Republicans

Max Baucus, who's been hammered by the left for diddling with the Republicans for months, now must listen to the Republicans lie about how they were excluded from healthcare reform process. Understandably, he erupts. What took him so long?

http://thinkprogress.org/2009/12/22/baucus-angry-at-gop/

The Year in Google Wave

Google Wave could be the next big thing, if only I could figure out how to use it:

The Christmas Blizzard of 2009

It's the big one. A huge snowstorm has arrived. Our long wait is over. It's 10:30 in the morning with the heavy snow just starting and there's already more than 8 inches on the ground. Weathermen are predicting up to 2 feet. Bliss!!

I've got the fire going, the Christmas music playing. We've got nowhere to go. So, we have a very cozy day ahead of us. It's like God hit the "pause button." My son Danny was scheduled to come home from college today, but, instead, he's going sledding on the Gettysburg Battlefield. I'm envious, but so glad he will have that experience. I told him to take pictures.

This almost the perfect storm. It's only flaw is that it occurred on the weekend.

And, in case you're saying, "Right, wait until you have to shovel!" Not to worry. My neighbor has already come by with the first pass with his snowblower.

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

Perspective

I love this post of a comment from Talking Points Memo comparing our current situation on healthcare reform.  Sounds very right to me.

Looking Back on China Trade Policy

I consider myself a free trader, but I'm not sure why.  It just seems to me that open markets around the world represents a desirable global economic system.  And protectionist policies are a slippery slope.  Still, it gets difficult when everyone doesn't play along.  In today's Washington Post, Harold Meyerson looks back on the debate in the U.S. around normalizing trade relations with China.  He points out that, during the debate:

Advocates' central contention was that the deal would eventually lead to a political liberalization of China -- which it hasn't -- and would enable the United States to so increase exports to China that our Chinese trade imbalance would end -- precisely the opposite of the effect that normalizing trade relations has actually had.

Economists often distinguish between the short term effects of policy change versus the long term.  Yes, free trade does create some short term pain, but the long term effects are positive.  We are now ten years later and things have only gotten worse for the U.S. 

How long is "long term?"  I'm reminded of the comment by the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes, "In the long term, we'll all be dead."

Quote of the Day

Obama is clearly walking a fine line in his visit to China.  It is in the interests of the whole world that the U.S. and China find ways to cooperate.  Still, the Chinese government can be pretty brutal in terms of human rights.  Obama has to touch both bases.  You can imagine the exchange with President Hu where Obama says, "I'll talk about all the good things we're doing together and how well we're getting along, but I'm going to have to whack you on some human rights issues, OK?"  And Hu says, "Sure, and I'll whack you about your outrageous deficits that are going to kill us in terms of the debt we hold for you.  Deal?"  Obama says, "Deal."  And off they go to the press conference.

Still, I have to say that Obama's response on the Internet did take the obsequiousness a step too far.  No wanting to say that he opposes the Chinese government's censorship of web sites because that would, in effect, accuse them of same, he said:

"I'm a big supporter of non-censorship."

C'mon Barack.  Though I strongly support engagement with China, even I think that was weak.

British Duck House

During the recent scandal in Great Britain about the abuse of expense allowances by British Members of Parliament, it was revealed that one MP used his expense allowance to pay for a duck house on his estate. This video is a spoof far beyond the capacity of most American humorists.

Using New Media for State Legislators

Here's my post mortem video after my presentation to the National Conference of State Legislatures.  Just preaching the gospel of new media.

Rep. Nancy Dahlstrom Describes Her District

As part of my presentation to the National Conference of State Legislatures, I demonstrated how to upload a video on a blog. Rep. Nancy Dahlstrom graciously agreed to describe her district for purposes of this exercise. Her most amazing point is the fact that 10,000 of her constituents are serving in Iraq or Afghanistan. Wow.

Yankees Lose!

With a blast to the left field wall in the bottom of the 11th inning, the Angels interrupted the Yankees march to the World Series.

“They’ve been waiting for a postseason homer from Vlady for a long
time, and they got one that put them back in the game,” Damon said. “It
just seemed like they had some momentum after that.”

One down, three to go for the Angels.

Richard Stoltzman at Strathmore

When I was in grammar school, I played the clarinet. When I was old enough to join the band, about the 4th or 5th grade, the priest that led the band at Sacred Heart School, Father Johnson, came to my house to discuss what instrument I should play, pointing out the differences between the brass instruments and the woodwinds. I remember thinking how hard it sounded to play a trumpet. I also remember saying that I wanted to play the clarinet, like Benny Goodman. Sadly, I only played through eighth grade, one of the enduring regrets of my life.

Tonight, I watched a clarinet player described as the greatest of our time, Richard Stoltzman. I have to admit, I hadn't heard of him until I learned of this concert. My interest in going was based more on the opportunity to see a live performance of Mozart's Clarinet Concerto, than who would be playing it. It is one my favorite pieces of classical music and I've listened to it hundreds of times. It is the first classical CD I ever bought. The performance did not disappoint.

That said, it is interesting listening to a piece of music in which every note is familiar. Frankly, Stoltzman took a while to warm up. He missed a few notes in the first up tempo movement. But he found his stride in the second slow, movement, which is heartbreakingly lyrical. And in the third movement, which is very quick, complex and challenging, he was flawless.

But he really let it rip after the intermission. The second set was a collection of Gershwin pieces, including Pomenade from a Fred Astaire/Ginger Rogers movie, as well as Bess and Summertime from Porgy and Bess. It was clear that he enjoyed playing this music over the Mozart, which probably does in his sleep. The finale was Copland's Clarinet Concerto, which the conductor said was the only clarinet concerto in two hundred years that even approaches the quality of the Mozart. Interestingly, this piece was actually commissioned by Benny Goodman, himself. It was a much more modern piece and not quite as accessible as everything that went before. Still, it offered an amazing display of Stoltzman's virtuosity.

It was a thoroughly enjoyable evening, made particularly entertaining Stoltzman's impish behavior on stage. It was unclear whether his funny faces and many mysterious side conversations with the players and conductor were designed to amuse us or were merely self-indulgent artistic antics. We chose to believe the former.

Barney Frank Biography

There is a new biography out on my old boss, Barney Frank, written by Stuart Weissberg. I was flattered to be a source for the book. The following is the short review I wrote on Amazon.com.

"First, a disclaimer. I was a source for this book. That said, the book is an extraordinary political biography that describes the life of an amazing politician, but also of an era. While the term, "the spirit of the sixties" has been trivialized over time, this book highlights the best of that decade by showing the genuine idealism at its heart. Moreover, this "spirit" is transcended to the degree that Barney Frank combined - and combines - the idealism of that era with a practical approach to politics. His goal was to have a measurable effect on the lives of poor people, who were then and are today, neglected by the political elites at all levels of government. This book shows how he did this and is a very valuable primer for those driven by results in public policy rather than scoring political points. Even to this day, in his very powerful position as Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Rep. Frank remains true both to those ideals and to the practical approach to politics. Of course, the book is also peppered with endless examples of Rep. Franks wicked wit, which provides chuckles throughout.

"Having proudly worked for Barney Frank, I can't claim to be objective about the book. But I can report on its accuracy, which is scrupulous. I was deeply involved with a particularly period in Rep. Frank's career and I could not find a single error of fact or even interpretation on things on which I had personal knowledge. I have to say, I was surprised by the candor I found in this authorized biography. This is a "warts and all" account that is very honest about some of Rep. Frank's personal struggles and, shall we say, challenging personality traits.

"In the end, however, this is a story of a political leader who remains uncorrupted by the power he currently wields. He entered politics to "comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable." Unlike many, he has stayed true to his original ideals and I believe the country is fortunate to have him at the center of our current economic travails."

Carly Fiorina on Sarah Palin

I was at a business meeting last night where Carly Fiorina spoke. First, let there be no doubt, she's running for Senate. That's clear.

Her prepared remarks were somewhat flat. She gave a detailed description on leadership that was fairly pedestrian. She presented herself as someone who knows leadership from personal experience and finds it sorely lacking in Washington. No surprise for a Republican running for statewide office. I have to say she was better in the Q&A session....mostly.

What was a surprise was her inability, or unwillingness, to evaluate our best known political leaders on their leadership qualities. She was asked whether she thought Barack Obama was a leader. She said it was too soon to tell.

But most interestingly, she was asked whether Sarah Palin displayed leadership qualities. The question was asked in apparent sincerity, but her physical reaction seemed to suggest that she considered it a hostile question.

Here's her response, word for word, in its entirety:

"I've never met Sarah Palin. Next question."

This from the General Chairwoman of the McCain Campaign. There was an audible buzz around the room and then she added:

"As Winston Churchill said, 'there are not inappropriate questions, only inappropriate answers.'"

Very telling.

Swine Flu, Has It Come to This?

My Daughter Bridget at the Book Festival on the Mall

This is a collage of pictures of authors that my daughter Bridget and I met on the Mall today. Clockwise from around the top they are: Ricky Minor, Music Director for American Idol, Food Network star, Paula Deen, Nicholas Spark, author of The Notebook and Tim O'Brien, who wrote The Things They Carried. Each of them was delightful, friendly and seemingly thrilled to meet Bridget. A great day!

Ted Kennedy and Airplanes

I've been reading Ted Kennedy's memoir and enjoying it immensely. One thing recently struck me, though. If I was Ted Kennedy, or any Kennedy, I wouldn't set foot in an airplane.

I'm a nervous flyer to begin with. But, think of what Ted Kennedy has experienced. First, his brother Joe dies in an airplane accident. Granted, flying a plane loaded with explosives does tempt fate, but it's still a tragedy. Then, Ted's sister Kathleen dies in a crash with her fiance'. The one I didn't know about was his roommate a Harvard, a budding Olympic skater, who died in a plane crash going to a Olympic preliminary trial. Then, of course, Ted himself almost died in a crash in western Massachusetts with Senator Birch Bayh. Finally, John, Jr.

Yes, if I was a Kennedy, I'd stay away from planes.