Thursday, July 27, 2006


In a post below, I contrasted my view about the prospects for Democrats winning the House with the "smart guys" in Washington who do district by district analysis and can't come up with the sufficient number of seats to take the Dems to a majority. It annoys me how smug there are when they declare their obviously better informed opinion when talking to naive waifs like me who are motivated by wishful thinking, rather than hard core analysis.

Well, thank you NPR. While not precisely district by district, they have done a poll which only samples 50 competitive districts in the aggregate and find a substantial majority in favor Democrats even when the names of the local incumbent are specified. The poll found Democrats ahead by 10 points in competitive seats and 3 points in supposedly safer Republican seats. And the universe of districts was 40 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats. So, this is Republican territory.

There is a wave building and I can't think of what it might take to reverse or even diminish it. No time for over-confidence. But it's also no time for defensiveness or "under-confidence."

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